In Foreign Policy Debate, Candidates Likely to Draw

One could argue that the last presidential debate on foreign policy is the last chance for President Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney to woo voters who might still be swayed.

There's no doubt that being the president gives you the upper hand in an argument on foreign policy—the president has been commander-in-chief for four years and he knows the ins and outs of the world stage. So you can be sure President Obama will carry his gravitas onto the debate stage tonight; His challenge, however, is to make sure he maintains it throughout the night by making sure that his opponent doesn't gain ground. So in a way, even though the commander-in-chief has an advantage he also has the most to lose.

If you look back at past foreign policy presidential debates the role of the challenger has been unchanged over the years: attack the incumbent on everything and anything, possible and imaginable. So you can expect Mitt Romney to come out and challenge the President on the attack on the American Consulate in Benghazi, Libya; expect to hear red line talking points on Iran’s nuclear capability. And you certainly will hear criticism on the President’s plan to cut defense spending.

The stakes were much higher in the first and second debate. Typically, more people tune in to the first debate than all the others. An estimated 67.2 million watched the first debate in Denver. Sixty-five million watched the second exchange between the candidates in Long Island, New York. Usually, third debate ratings fall flat—and we’re certain they will this time around since foreign policy is not that important an issue for Americans in this election. Also major sports events will overlap with the debate which airs tonight at 9:00pm eastern.

It’s hard to see how this debate will substantially move the needle—and most likely the candidates will draw a tie. Given that the President has been a somewhat successful leader on foreign policy but there’s still opportunity for Mitt Romney to attack him on some specifics, both candidates have a window to sufficiently perform tonight. As we see it, only a major blunder on behalf of either candidate could substantially help their opponent; the likelihood of that happening is almost nonexistent. Both candidates know that this late in the game a blunder could easily cost them the election.