Taking Out An Incumbent: Easier Said Than Done

If there’s anyone out there that thinks President Obama has a tremendous case for re-election they've got some soul searching to do. The question we ought to be asking—the question that has Republicans scratching their heads—is whether Mitt Romney is making an effective case against what the President has done and what he has to offer in another term. And if that message is in fact sufficient, did they choose the right vessel to carry that message home?

I’m not going to deliver talking points for either campaign, but I can say this:

Three things are needed in order to remove an incumbent. First, the challenger needs a strong message for the American people. Second, the challenger needs a strong message against the incumbent; and third, and the most important one, the challenger has to be a strong vessel to carry both messages. Take Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. They delivered on all three of these points and they were extremely successful.

When it comes to Mitt Romney’s plan going forward we can say that it is not as effective as Republicans would like it to be. Let’s face it; Avoiding details on a tax plan, healthcare, and job creation does not quite work in his favor. Promising twelve million jobs in four years without a clear plan to deliver on it, committing to repeal the Affordable Care Act without telling the public what to replace it with, or claiming to cut taxes and reduce the deficit in spite of evidence of its improbability does not allow for that message to be delivered effectively—so it does not resonate with voters.

Mr. Romney has also been unable to reach voters by delivering a pessimistic message about the President’s performance. By now we've already heard the twenty-three million unemployed, or the forty-seven million on food stamps talking points—and these numbers sort of worked in the beginning. But just throwing these numbers out there and hoping they stick doesn't do much. Unless Mr. Romney makes it personal—by referring to the coal miner, who lost his job because of this administration’s policies, or the mother who now has to work two part-time jobs and who barely has time for her kids, or the college kid who had to move back into his parent’s house because he can’t find a job—the message won’t hold.

And regardless of how the pundits will try to spin this, Mr. Romney is not, in any way, a strong enough candidate to deliver the kind of messages that will remove Barack Obama from the White House. Unlike Ronald Reagan, or Bill Clinton, he has no personal warmth whatsoever.

In order for Mitt Romney to be successful in spite of all of this would be for President Barack Obama to have a terrible campaign and a horrendous presidency. Unfortunately for Mitt, Obama’s presidency wasn't horrendous, and his campaign is far from terrible.

Unless this country goes into a double-dip recession or some kind national security tragedy takes place, Mitt Romney doesn't have a strong enough argument or solid chances of winning this election.